CS2 Market Report: 12 to 19 September 2026

The short version

This report covers 12 to 19 September and compares 220 skins across six categories. The median change over the window was zero, the third flat window in a row. The headline is not the median. It is the AWP Atheris in Factory New, which fell about 35.3 percent, from 57.61 to 37.27 dollars, the widest single move in either direction we have recorded.

Underneath that, the balance leaned down and leaned harder than before. Of the 220 items, 28 rose, 73 fell and 119 did not move at all. Five of the six categories posted a median of zero; SMGs were the exception at about minus 1.9 percent, still inside the range we treat as flat. Nothing moved as a block, so the week is a story about individual items rather than about the market.

Where the moves were

Rifles remain the largest group we track at 74 items, and they leaned down without becoming a trend: 13 rose and 27 fell, short of the two thirds in one direction we would want before naming it. Pistols had the same shape at 44 items, 5 up and 17 down, as did SMGs at 12 items, 1 up and 6 down. Of the six heavy items, one fell and none rose. Each of those is a lean.

The two largest falls were both thin Factory New markets. After the AWP Atheris came the MP7 Fade in Factory New, down about 22.3 percent, from 15.67 to 12.17 dollars. In books that thin the reference price tracks whichever few listings are standing, so a fall of this size can be one seller undercutting rather than a valuation changing. We would want a second week at the new level before treating either number as the price.

The gainers were smaller and more ordinary. The AK-47 Redline in Well-Worn added about 5.5 percent to 24.48 dollars and the AWP Asiimov in Battle-Scarred about 5.5 percent to 76.29. The MP7 Nemesis in Minimal Wear rose about 6.1 percent to 7.10, notable only as the single riser among twelve SMGs. Below those the movers list runs down to about 2.6 percent, and on a weekly view anything under 3 percent is noise rather than news.

Knives and gloves

Knives were flat by median across 61 tracked items, with 4 up and 17 down, the most one sided category in the window by ratio. The largest gain anywhere in the week was a knife: the Huntsman Knife Gamma Doppler in Minimal Wear, up about 17.5 percent, from 223.65 to 262.76 dollars.

The reference price for a Doppler name follows the cheapest phase on offer, so a swing there is usually the cheapest phase changing rather than the knife repricing, and traders should use the per-phase prices in our Doppler guide. This item fell about 14.2 percent last week and has now risen about 17.5 percent, which is what a cheapest-phase effect looks like.

The clearest knife move that is not a phase effect went the other way. The Karambit Tiger Tooth in Minimal Wear lost about 6.9 percent, from 988.52 to 920.57 dollars, giving back almost exactly the 7.0 percent it gained the week before. Gloves were even: 23 pairs tracked, 5 up and 5 down, 13 unchanged and a median of zero. No pair rose by more than about 3.1 percent and the largest fall was about 9.2 percent.

What we are watching

Last week's report watched three things. Gloves, which had no risers out of 23, came back to 5 up and 5 down, so that one sided week started nothing. The two Battle-Scarred pistols up around ten percent were watched on the view that thin gains give back, and one did so emphatically: the Glock-18 Water Elemental in Battle-Scarred fell about 16.2 percent to 18.17 dollars, more than undoing its gain. The Desert Eagle Ocean Drive in Battle-Scarred is not among this week's ten largest moves either way. The third, the Gamma Doppler knives, is answered by the Huntsman reversal above.

Three things for the coming week, all from this week's numbers. First, whether the AWP Atheris in Factory New holds near 37.27 dollars or recovers; one more week settles whether that fall was a repricing. Second, SMGs, the only category with a median away from zero at about minus 1.9 percent and 6 of 12 falling; another week of the same would make it our first category trend. Third, knives at 4 up and 17 down, where the ratio is more one sided than the flat median suggests.

The practical note is unchanged. With 119 of the 220 items not moving at all, most reference prices on both sides of a swap are steady, which keeps item for item trades easy to price. The exceptions are the thin Factory New markets above, where the quoted number and the tradable number may differ.