CS2 Market Report: 19 to 26 September 2026

The short version

This report covers 19 to 26 September and compares 226 skins across six categories. The median change over the window was zero, the fourth flat window in a row. The headline is the USP-S Cortex in Factory New, which fell about 28.1 percent, from 36.90 to 26.54 dollars, the largest single move in either direction this week.

Underneath the flat median the downward lean was wider than in any window we have reported. Of the 226 items, 15 rose, 94 fell and 117 did not move at all. All six categories posted a median of zero, so nothing moved as a block. Nothing in the window pushed prices.

Where the moves were

Rifles remain the largest group we track at 77 items, and they leaned down without becoming a trend: 6 rose and 30 fell, short of the two thirds in one direction we would want before naming it. Pistols were the same shape at 45 items, 5 up and 19 down, as were SMGs at 13 items, 2 up and 6 down. Of the six heavy items, one fell and none rose. Each of those is a lean.

The gainers list was short. The Desert Eagle Mecha Industries in Factory New added about 16.7 percent, from 20.83 to 24.31 dollars, and was the only riser anywhere above 4 percent. Behind it the AK-47 Asiimov in Field-Tested rose about 3.6 percent to 38.66 and the Desert Eagle Code Red in Field-Tested about 3.2 percent to 40.08. Below those the risers run under 3 percent, which on a weekly view is noise rather than news.

The falls were larger and more numerous. After the USP-S Cortex, the MP7 Nemesis in Minimal Wear lost about 12.3 percent, from 7.10 to 6.23 dollars, while the same skin in Factory New rose about 3.2 percent to 24.80. One name moving both ways across two wears in a single week is usually two thin order books rather than one market.

Knives and gloves

Knives were flat by median across 62 tracked items, with 2 up and 28 down. That is the most one sided category in the window by ratio and a deeper lean than last week's 4 up and 17 down, but 28 of 62 is short of the two thirds we would want before calling it a trend.

The largest knife fall was the Bayonet Fade in Factory New, down about 15.4 percent, from 375.37 to 317.48 dollars, and we would want a second week at that level before treating it as the price. Two Doppler names sit just below it, both down about 7 percent. The reference price for a Doppler name follows the cheapest phase on offer, so a swing there is usually the cheapest phase changing rather than the knife repricing, and traders should use the per-phase prices in our Doppler guide.

Gloves posted no risers at all: 23 pairs tracked, none up, 10 down and 13 unchanged, for a median of zero. The largest fall was the Sport Gloves Amphibious in Field-Tested, at about 17.8 percent, from 332.35 to 273.31 dollars. With 13 pairs unchanged this is a lean rather than a glove market selling off.

What we are watching

Last week's report watched three things. The AWP Atheris in Factory New, which had fallen about 35.3 percent, is not among this week's ten largest moves either way, so it has neither recovered nor fallen sharply again. SMGs were the second, the only category then with a median away from zero at about minus 1.9 percent; this week the SMG median is back to zero with 2 up and 6 down of 13, so there is no category trend to name. The third was knives at 4 up and 17 down, and that ratio widened to 2 up and 28 down.

Three things for the coming week, all from this week's numbers. First, the USP-S Cortex in Factory New at 26.54 dollars, the largest fall of the window. Second, gloves, with no risers out of 23 and 10 fallers, for the second time in the four windows we have covered; a third such week would make the lean worth naming even with the median at zero. Third, the Bayonet Fade in Factory New at 317.48 dollars, where one more week settles whether that fall was one seller or a new level.

With 117 of the 226 items not moving at all, reference prices on both sides of a swap are mostly steady, which keeps item for item trades easy to price. But 94 fallers against 15 risers is a wide imbalance, so check the daily prices on the skin pages before agreeing a swap.