CS2 Market Report: 26 September to 3 October 2026

The short version

This report covers 26 September to 3 October and compares 239 skins across six categories. The median change over the window was zero, the fifth flat window in a row. The largest single move was the M4A4 Desolate Space in Factory New, down about 15.1 percent, from 78.59 to 66.72 dollars.

The balance matters more than that one item. Of the 239 skins, 50 rose, 64 fell and 125 did not move at all. Last week the count was 15 up and 94 down, so the wide downward lean we reported then has narrowed to close to even in one window. All six categories again posted a median of zero, so nothing moved as a block. Nothing in the window pushed prices.

Where the moves were

Rifles remain the largest group at 83 items and came back to nearly even, 19 up and 24 down, far short of the two thirds in one direction we would want before naming a trend. Pistols had the same shape at 47 items, 12 up and 14 down. SMGs leaned down at 13 items, 2 up and 6 down. Of the six heavy items, one rose and none fell.

The top of the gainers list was cheap and thin. The SSG 08 Big Iron in Field-Tested added about 11.2 percent, from 8.01 to 8.91 dollars, which is a 90 cent move on a thin book. The Glock-18 Water Elemental in Battle-Scarred rose about 8.9 percent, from 17.64 to 19.21.

The falls were larger. After the M4A4 Desolate Space came the Glock-18 Water Elemental in Factory New, down about 14.0 percent, from 47.29 to 40.68 dollars. One name rising in Battle-Scarred and falling by more in Factory New inside the same week is two thin books rather than one market. The USP-S Cortex in Factory New fell again, about 10.2 percent to 23.83. Every move in the ten largest each way cleared 4 percent this week; below that, anything under 3 percent is noise rather than news.

Knives and gloves

Knives were flat by median across 64 tracked items and evenly split at 12 up and 12 down, with 40 unchanged. That is a sharp change from last week's 2 up and 28 down, and the clearest sign that the lean did not carry.

Three of the ten largest gains in the window were Doppler or Gamma Doppler knives in Minimal Wear. The Bowie Knife Gamma Doppler in Minimal Wear rose about 7.4 percent, from 207.88 to 223.23 dollars, and two other Doppler names in the same wear rose between about 6 and 8 percent. The reference price for a Doppler name follows the cheapest phase on offer, so a swing there is usually the cheapest phase changing rather than the knife repricing, and traders should use the per-phase prices in our Doppler guide.

Gloves tracked 26 pairs, with 4 up, 8 down and 14 unchanged for a median of zero. The risers matter because there were none at all last week. The largest glove gain, and the most expensive item in the movers list, was the Driver Gloves Black Tie in Factory New, up about 9.6 percent from 1040.75 to 1140.15 dollars. The largest fall was the Specialist Gloves Fade in Field-Tested, down about 8.6 percent from 163.27 to 149.30. With 14 pairs unchanged this is a lean, not a glove market going anywhere.

What we are watching

Last week's report watched three things, and the data answers all three. The USP-S Cortex in Factory New, then at 26.54 dollars, fell again by about 10.2 percent to 23.83, so that was not one seller undercutting for a week. Gloves, which had posted no risers out of 23, came back to 4 up and 8 down of 26, so the third one sided glove week did not arrive. The Bayonet Fade in Factory New, left at 317.48 dollars, is not among this week's ten largest moves either way.

Three things for the coming week, all from this week's numbers. First, the Glock-18 Water Elemental, up about 8.9 percent in Battle-Scarred and down about 14.0 percent in Factory New in the same window; one more week shows which wear was mispriced. Second, the M4A4 Desolate Space in Factory New at 66.72 dollars, where a second week at that level would make it the price rather than a gap. Third, knives, back to 12 up and 12 down after 2 up and 28 down.

With 125 of the 239 items not moving at all, most reference prices on both sides of a swap are steady, and 50 risers against 64 fallers is an easier market for item for item trades than last week's 15 against 94. The exceptions are the thin wears at both ends of the movers list, where the quoted number and the tradable number may differ.