CS2 Market Report: 3 to 10 October 2026

The short version

This report covers 3 to 10 October and compares 248 skins across six categories. The median change was about 2.7 percent down, which ends the run of flat windows this report has described since early September. The largest single move was the MP7 Fade in Minimal Wear, down about 17.9 percent, from 7.03 to 5.77 dollars, a move of about a dollar on a cheap item.

The breadth matters more. Adding up the six category rows, 9 items rose and 133 fell, leaving 106 that did not move. Last week's report described a market close to even on the count, and that has gone. Rifles and pistols both posted medians past 2 percent down, so two categories moved as a block rather than a few names moving alone.

Where the moves were

Rifles are the largest group at 85 items and the weakest: a median of about 3.7 percent down, 4 risers against 49 fallers. That clears the 2 percent mark we use before calling a category a trend. Pistols had the same shape at 48 items, about 2.7 percent down with 3 up and 25 down. SMGs at 14 items came in about 1.5 percent down, 1 up and 7 down, which is a lean. The six heavy items were flat, with no risers and 2 fallers.

Two gainers stood out and the rest did not. The Glock-18 Water Elemental in Factory New rose about 17.3 percent, from 40.68 to 47.72 dollars, taking back the fall we reported in that name last week. The AK-47 Redline in Battle-Scarred added about 6.2 percent, from 19.93 to 21.16. Nothing else in the gainers list reached 2 percent, so the rest of the upside is noise.

Every one of the ten largest falls cleared 13 percent. The M4A1-S Printstream in Minimal Wear was the largest in cash terms, down about 17.4 percent from 263.67 to 217.69 dollars, and the USP-S Printstream in Minimal Wear fell about 16.9 percent from 57.19 to 47.50. The same USP-S Printstream in Battle-Scarred rose about 1.8 percent in the same window, which is two books on one name rather than one market repricing. That pattern ran through more than one name this week.

Knives and gloves

Knives tracked 66 items with a median of about 1.4 percent down, 1 riser and 34 fallers. The count leans one way, but only just over half the group moved down and the median sits inside 2 percent, so this is a lean rather than a trend. Last week's report described knives as evenly split, and that did not hold.

The largest knife fall was the Talon Knife Marble Fade in Factory New, down about 15.0 percent from 526.18 to 447.52 dollars. The two knives in the gainers list both moved less than 1 percent, which is noise. One is the Bowie Knife Gamma Doppler in Minimal Wear, up about 0.1 percent. The reference price for a Doppler name follows the cheapest phase on offer, so a swing there is usually the cheapest phase changing rather than the knife repricing, and traders should use the per-phase prices in our Doppler guide.

Gloves tracked 29 pairs with a median of about 0.7 percent down, no risers at all and 16 fallers. With 13 pairs unchanged that is a lean, though a lean with nothing rising in it. The two largest glove falls were both Field-Tested and both cleared 14 percent.

What we are watching

Last week's report watched three things and the data answers them. The Glock-18 Water Elemental, which split across wears last week, went the other way: Factory New was this week's largest gain at about 17.3 percent and now sits at 47.72 dollars, so the name is still splitting across wears rather than settling. The M4A4 Desolate Space in Factory New is not among the ten largest moves either way, so that level held. Knives did not stay at the even split we noted.

Three things for the coming week. First, whether the median holds below zero: one window at about 2.7 percent down after a run of flat ones could be a single week of marking down or the start of a drift, and rifles at about 3.7 percent down are where it would show first. Second, the two Minimal Wear Printstreams, now at 217.69 and 47.50 dollars after falls near 17 percent each. Third, knives, where 34 of 66 items fell but the median moved only about 1.4 percent, so the typical knife barely moved while a long tail came down.

For trading this is a harder week. With 133 of 248 items falling and 106 unchanged, both sides of a swap are more likely to have moved, and the side you are receiving may be quoted off a price that has not caught up. Check the live book before agreeing a ratio.